The National party, and in particular John Key, have of late been heavily downplaying the likelihood of a National victory at the 2014 election. Which given the polls is surprising with their achievement of over 50% in all the recent polls and projected ability to govern alone. Far ahead of the Labour/Greens/NZ First/Internet-Mana bloc.
The reason supposedly being that anything could happen and National voters need to be reminded to not take a win for granted, and pushed to go out and vote for National on election day, otherwise risk a far left government.
Now I have a few issues with this sort of thinking. It's both humble and arrogant at the same time. It's humble because it shows National not taking a win for granted and shows they aren't taking it easy. But at the same time it shows Nationals arrogance, of assuming its voters are too stupid to bother or remember to go vote. And we all need that nice John Key to strongly remind us to do so.
As a voter I feel angry about this. I'm pretty intelligent, and I keep abreast of politics so I know the risks of not voting. So why do National need to remind their own party members of this? Surely anyone who's gone to the bother of joining a political party, let alone turn up to the national conference, in this age of declining party membership, is a switched on voter. And given they've joined the National Party, likely to be pretty smart too (a generalisation I know, but most National party members and voters tend to be smarter and more successful than those who are members of or vote for the Labour party). So reminding them of the importance of voting is both patronising and arrogant to assume the party knows better than their own members, and runs the risk of irritating them, and perhaps even reconsidering where their party vote is placed. Perhaps driving them to vote for ACT or the Conservatives, or even NZ First, rather than the goal of consolidating the National Party vote.
Surely Nationals strategists are aware of the political and economic psychology that suggests that negatives have a bigger affect on people than positives. Which is applicable to the electoral race in NZ at the moment. Labour are suffering blunder and bad news on at least a weekly, if not more regular basis,having a hugely negative effect on their voters perceptions of the party. This leads to the lower poll results we see, as all but the hardcore supporters desert them, by either not voting, or voting for another left party that inspires them more. This is on top of the supposed swing voter movement that has already moved to National, after making up their mind about Labour's ability to govern months ago. And this desertion of left voters becomes a self fulfilling prophecy when they see continued low poll results, meaning they can't see Labour forming a government, and come election day they just can't be bothered to get out and vote, as they can't see it having any effect of benefiting them to do so.
This effect also has some affect on Nationals vote, with some voters seeing Nationals win as a given, but this number is small, and is countered by the increase in votes from people who want to back a winner. Everyone loves backing a winner, and feels like it was because they backed them that National won. This gives the voter a sense of happiness and also a sense of importance. They also ascribe somewhat the good features they see in the winners to themselves, further increasing their self worth.
It is this reason why National will win the election comfortably on September 20 and Labour will fall to their lowest party vote in the MMP era.
We only need to look at the National vote in the 2002 election to see the affect of being the guaranteed looser. The middle ground voters had departed them months before the election, and their previously solid voters had looked to the likes of ACT for their party vote to show their support for a right wing party that inspires them more. It wasn't that ACT suddenly became more popular, it was that National became hugely unpopular, and otherwise National voters deserted the party like rats off a sinking ship.
This combined with the swing votes gave Labour a safe win, with less of a margin than National have today, due to the fractured left in NZ.
Nationals win this time will make Labour's win in 2002 look like a close run thing. But like Nationals decimation in 2002 enabled National to renew it's caucus. Labour's 2014 decimation, of low to mid 20% party vote will give it the signal to renew, and renew rapidly. Or result in a further fracturing of the Labour Party as the the factions fail to agree on the way forward. Either way, a new revived Labour Party will come of it. Probably to strongly challenge National in the 2017 election as the mood for change becomes overwhelming.
After all the public loves change for changes sake.
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